You weren’t there when man first rubbed two rocks together and created fire. You may or may not have been around when man may or may not have first walked on the moon. You definitely weren’t in the stands when Wilt Chamberlain scored 100 points because that shit never happened. But fear not my friend, your time to witness a moment in history has arrived. Simply by reading these words, you join a long list of milestone event observers who can say: I was there.
For this, is the very first edition of Against My Bettor Judgement.
And what a week to get things rolling. Down in D.C, the greatest sitcom never written swings into it’s 2nd season with a list of possible plots so endless, the good folk at Polymarket must be positively foaming at the mouth. If I was me and I just became President, my first order of business would be an Executive Order to void all bets, over or under, hampered by a first half injury. Americans, Red and Blue alike, would lay down their pitchforks and sing together in unison. No honest punter would ever fall foul again to the greatest tragedy known to the gambling man. And the Jontay Porter scandal would be but a mere fart in the wind. One can dream.
Elsewhere Ohio State defeated Notre Dame to claim the first National Championship under the new playoff format, a change that has sparked debate, controversy and another bracket for me to airball every year. Congrats to all the Buckeyes out there, except maybe this guy. Don’t be this guy.
A Trip to the Big Game
The juiciest item however on this week’s betting menu is of course pro football. The deeper we venture into these NFL playoffs, the greater this feeling of bittersweetness grows inside of me. The stakes are higher than they’ve been all year, but with just three games of the season left, it’s hard to ignore the abyss that waits on the other side of Super Bowl Sunday. Losing the weekly dopamine rush of a RedZone octobox was enough adversity to overcome, but the thought of making plans and spending time with my nearest and dearest on Sundays makes me ever so slightly sick in my mouth.
Alas, a truly debaucherous gambler does not let such obstacles dampen their quest to hit the big one. It would be blasphemous to those who’ve sacrificed so much just to end up -174 units on the season. Mark Andrews would give his left arm to still be in the dance. We must persevere. So what’s to look forward to this Conference Championship weekend?
Hopefully, the Bills beating the living fuck out the Chiefs. Look, I don’t care about how often they show Taylor Swift on screen (unless I can back it), or what outlandish nonsense Jackson Mahomes has just posted, none of that bothers me. I’m just bored of this team. The fun started to seep out when Tyreek Hill left, and now we’re left with an offense you can set your watch to.
Nonetheless, Big Red and his boys are 2 point home favorites with a total over/under of 47.5. Seven straight appearances in the AFC decider, along with a 15-2 regular season makes that hard to argue, but Josh Allen and the Bills have arguably been the more convincing team. Buffalo has racked up an impressive 12-7 mark ATS this year, easily trumping KC’s 8-10 number. Mahomes started 4-0 ATS in his career against Allen, but has since gone 1-3 including the nine point loss to Buffalo back in November. In Conference Championship games however, Mahomes has covered the spread at a 4-2 rate, a hard number to ignore. My advice among all these conflicting trends? Focus on the ones that confirm whatever your gut picked an hour ago.
Or else, you know, you could bet $1.3 million straight up on the Chiefs…
Switching our attention over to the NFC now, an intriguing battle awaits at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday afternoon. This all-NFC East matchup doesn’t appear to have all of America rooting for one side likes its AFC counterpart, but instead a much more balanced spectacle with genuine reasons to root for both sides. Take the Commanders’ first-year quarterback sensation Jayden Daniels, who after blitzing Dan Campbell’s balls to the wall Lions’ team, now has the chance to become the first rookie to lead his team all the way to the Super Bowl. If fairytales aren’t your cup of tea however, all is not lost. How can you not love the Eagles, a team with a fanbase so compassionate yet so fired up to support their team, they literally consider it the most important job in the world. Honestly, Google “Eagles Fan Fired Job” if you don’t believe me. Incredible stuff.
The divisional match up, the first at this stage of the season since L.A. and San Francisco met in 2022, has historically favored the home team at an overwhelming 14-5 clip. Superstar running back Saquon Barkley of the Eagles rewrote the record books with an astonishing 2,005 yards on the ground this year, and opened the week with the highest rushing total over/under in three seasons per ESPN. Washington have defied the odds all year however, reaching their Conference Championship game despite starting the season as 150-1 outsiders for the Super Bowl, and posting a solid 5-2-1 record ATS as underdogs along the way.
Both games feature spreads of less than a touchdown, meaning we should be in for a fantasical feast of football come Sunday afternoon. Now is not the time for rational thinking and measured decision making. The abyss awaits and you won’t look back fondly in April at the smart money you made backing teasers. Channel your inner Baba Vanga, feel the game script flow through you and load up a moonshot so fiendish the Russians will be racing to get it placed before you do.
The Week in Gambling
The Athletic revealed more details this week from the case of Shohei Ohtani’s interpreter. A recording emerged of Ippei Mizuhara, who has pleaded guilty to bank fraud and filing a false tax return, doing his best impersonation of the Dodgers’ star in an attempt to push through a $200,000 wire transfer from one of his accounts. I remember walking into my local bookmakers back in Ireland as a spritely seventeen year old with my cousins I.D to lay a tenner on my all-time favourite stallion Cue Card to win the King George’s Chase, so I can definitely resonate with what he was going through.
Cross-sport season-long parlays are the holy grail of sports betting for me, and one Bet MGM has two beauties riding on the Chiefs winning the AFC Championship respectively. You have to respect his commitment to the Buckeyes, Celtics and Chiefs but it does make you wonder how many combinations existed at the inception of these bets. Then again, it won’t really matter if either come in.
So there you have it folks, all great journeys begin with one step and Against My Bettor Judgement is off and running. I hope you have an enjoyable and profitable Championship Sunday, and thanks for reading. Happy punting.